As one year draws to an end, forecasters try to lay out the major trends for the New Year. Targeted subjects include oil, gas, gold and copper prices; bank interest lending rates; federal and provincial government deficits; and, certainly, real estate trends. Forecasters are not omniscient; nevertheless, they try to be as accurate as possible.
Steve Davidson has written that ‘Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room that may not even be there.’ In other words, this sage believed that future events, like cats, can prove to be very elusive!
Winston Churchill would wholeheartedly agree with this assessment. He once said, ‘I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place.’
Some of the forecasters of the 2010 Edmonton Real Estate market might want to take Churchill’s advice. One reliable source (CMHC) told us a year ago to expect an annual average price increase of about 4% in 2010 which would put us about equal once again with the 2008 average annual home price. Moreover, they fortified their prediction with the bold prediction that there would be a lower housing inventory this year than last.
How did this somewhat optimistic outlook work out? Let the following chart detailing the activity from January-November, 2010 speak for itself:
EDMONTON REAL ESTATE COMPARISON 2008-2010
Year 2008 2009 2010
Single Family Home Listings 21,894 16,736 19,077
Condominium Listings 11,352 8,638 9,278
Single Family Home Sales 10,789 11,745 9,825
Condominium Sales 4,705 5,121 4,411
Sales-to-Listing Ratio 49% 70% 51%
Avg. Sales Price (SF) $377,121 $364,480 $378,326
Avg. Sales Price (Condo) $228,569 $236,652 $229,603
Avg. Days on Market (SF) 56 50 47
Avg. Days on Market (Condo) 58 57 52
Total Units Listed 38,299 29,787 31,137
Total Units Sold 17,049 19,016 15,400
The most popular price ranges were $150,000-375,000. This range accounted for 2/3 of all sales.
What does 2011 hold for Edmonton Real Estate? Probably much the same as 2010. With interest rates starting to climb, buyers should be anxious to become a homeowner while the rates are still affordable and the home prices attractive. Generally, prices may see a modest gain of 3-4% although I defer to Winston Churchill about the certainty of the statement!.
Tags: Real Estate